V-League 2026/27: Which teams face the greatest relegation threat?

Round 1 of V-League 2026/27 has not yet kicked off, but the relegation battle landscape has already emerged on the desk. Song Lam Nghe An (SLNA) and Bac Ninh will face each other in the opening round at Vinh Stadium — the earliest six-pointer in league history. Both are among the 5 clubs rated as having the highest relegation risk this season.

The 2026/27 season witnesses a significant regulation change: the bottom two teams will be relegated directly, with no play-off. This rule (Article 2) completely eliminates the safety net, turning every match of the bottom group into a reverse final. With 5 names including SLNA, Bac Ninh, Dong Nai, Thanh Hoa and HAGL, the relegation battle this season promises to be more fierce than ever.

SLNA: Rebuilding from the ashes

SLNA enters the season with major squad upheaval. Four players left including foreign duo Michael Olaha, Carlos Fortes and two domestic players Ngo Van Luong and Vuong Van Huy. Losing two key foreign players simultaneously shows the financial problems of the Nghe An team are very difficult.

Coach Van Sy Son publicly acknowledged the pressure: "Young squad, limited finances, foreign players need time to adapt." This statement reflects the reality that SLNA is having to rebuild from scratch with young players from the province's famous academy. Despite having a new sponsor, the money is not enough to retain key players — a signal that the club is operating on a cost-cutting model.

SLNA's only anchor is its youth training tradition. The club's history has produced many generations of talent for Vietnamese football. But the question is: is the current young generation good enough to replace those who left? Based on my experience following matches, young squads often lack psychological and physical stability when grinding through a full season.

Bac Ninh: The Brazilian foreign player gamble

Newly promoted Bac Ninh shocked with a massive transfer campaign: 7 domestic signings and 3 Brazilian foreigners including Vitao, Brenner Marlos. This is a typical strategy of newly promoted teams — buying in large numbers to build squad depth in one transfer window.

However, the integration problem is the biggest risk. Three Brazilian players who have never played in V-League will face the league's harshness, cultural differences and language barriers. The squad lacks experience and composure — as noted in the analysis — which could turn the shopping strategy into a failed gamble.

Notably, Bac Ninh also recruited Minh-Kai, an overseas Vietnamese midfielder. This is a smart recruitment channel as overseas Vietnamese players do not occupy foreign player slots, helping the club add quality without violating foreign player quota regulations.

Dong Nai: Fate tied to Cong Phuong

Dong Nai invests heavily but the dependence on Cong Phuong's form is a serious tactical weakness. When a team revolves around one star, opponents only need to neutralize this player to disable the entire attacking system.

Coach Nguyen Viet Thang is questioned about his coaching ability. If Cong Phuong declines or suffers injury, Dong Nai's entire strategy collapses. Media pressure on a national-level star is a double-edged sword — creating attraction for the club while being a huge psychological burden.

Thanh Hoa and HAGL: Experience is not a lucky charm

Both teams have many years of V-League experience, but financial difficulties are eroding their competitiveness. HAGL with its famous youth training model is facing the problem of selling players to balance the budget — a vicious cycle that prevents the Mountain City team from ever having the strongest squad.

Experience can help avoid silly mistakes, but cannot replace squad quality. If they fail to maintain consistency, both teams will fall into the relegation vortex.

The earliest six-pointer in history

The SLNA vs Bac Ninh match in Round 1 is an early signal for the relegation landscape. The winner will have a huge psychological advantage, the loser will fall into crisis from the first round. With the rule of 2 direct relegation spots and no play-off, every point becomes golden.

From a referee's perspective, this season's relegation race is not just a tactical story but also a management problem. Clubs lacking financial resources will have to rely on youth training and defensive counter-attacking tactics. Meanwhile, heavily invested teams like Bac Ninh must face foreign player integration risks.

Through the referee's eye, you don't cheer for anyone. You only find the right person. And in this relegation battle, the right person will be the club that manages its resources best, not the club with the biggest star.

335 VAR interventions, 335 times the law was called on the pitch. But in the relegation race, the rules are not in the referee's hands — they are in the hands of club managers. When force majeure ends, obligations begin. And the obligation of these 5 clubs is to survive 26 grueling rounds.

The referee's eye will closely follow every development. The biggest question is not who will be relegated, but which club has enough courage to stand up after the first falls.